Another team the model loves: Penn State, favored by two in the Fiesta Bowl against Washington. The line opened at three, but has since dropped a point. The model is calling for a 28-22 win by the Nittany Lions, who are covering in 58 percent of simulations.

SportsLine’s model is calling for the Under (55) to hit in the Fiesta Bowl as well. It’s winning in 62 percent of simulations, so back that side of the total without thinking twice.

Penn State has held two of its last three opponents (Maryland, Rutgers) to under 10 points. Meanwhile, Washington has the nation’s sixth-best scoring defense at 14.5 points per game, but allowed 74 points in their last three regular season games (Stanford, Utah, Washington State).



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